Leading a tiny group into the rainy, steaming jungle, Ko Kaung led his group-little group through the central Myanmar sweltering jungle. He was part of a unit of the People’s Defense Force (PDF) which was the first to capture successive territories in 2023 and 2024. Still, the young leader is now having to defend himself most of the time. “The military’s forced conscription gave them for all intents and purposes unlimited manpower, ” he explained to the media recently. “It completely changed the battlefield.”
The civil war in Myanmar following the military coup which ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in 2021 has recently taken a very depressing turn in 2026. Groups of rebels and ethnic minorities who seemed to be on the brink of major victories, are now losing ground in most regions, mainly because of the military coup’s very strong conscription campaign that was launched in 2024.
For the ordinary people like 22-year-old Than Zaw, the situation is quite scary. Being literally taken from the streets or forcibly brought from the family home during a midnight raid, he was one of the tens of thousands who were drafted compulsorily into the military. After several months of harsh training and being sent to the front line, he sneaked away with three other soldiers after which they tried the rebel-held areas. Obviously, these unwilling, exhausted recruits who often lack proper weapons and motivation have been able to allow the junta to stabilize their defenses and launch counterattacks through their sheer numbers.
Currently, the military only controls about 20-25% of the country’s territory, but it has managed to take back the key areas. For example, in the northern parts, they succeeded in reclaiming the very significant roads that connect Mandalay with Myitkyina. Continuous air strikes combined with the use of drones and support from China as reported by sources have allowed the military to inflict great damage to the rebels’ positions. Alliances based on ethnicity like the Three Brotherhood Alliance which at one time, were able to capture major towns including Lashio, are now confronted with very strong forces.
Life is a nightmare for people in Myanmar. Many young males, either run away to other countries or hide in the jungle so as not to be caught by the conscription squads. This policy which compels men aged 18-35 to render military service for a minimum period of two years, has resulted in a mass movement of people while at the same time strengthening the junta soldiers’ numbers because of conscription. The military is thought by the analysts to have recruited in tens of thousands allowing them a lot to make up for earlier losses even though there are still desertions and low morale among the unwilling fighters.
Rebel commanders confess that lack of manpower is the biggest problem they are facing. Barred from weapons and supplies, their counterpart PDF units and ethnic armies only can barely manage to be on par with the junta’s capacity to supply an endless stream of soldiers. In most of the Bamar heartland areas, the insurgent forces have ceased offensive operations and they are now compelled to defend their last remaining villages in a desperate effort to keep the junta at bay.
Increasingly toll is being paid. Millions of people are still displaced, and thousands have lost their lives since coup. Thousands of fatalities in 2021-2022, Over 3 million refugees and displaced persons, thousands of killed and injured. Air strike and arson, human rights abuses, and atrocities perpetrated by both sides. Assistance The humanitarian aid sector is facing great difficulties in reaching those who are in most need. Economic meltdown, Food shortage, and Destruction of means of livelihood.
International concern has faded, Still the war’s aftershocks keep affecting border countries. Refugees arriving in Thailand, India and Bangladesh are a heavy load.
China is playing a double game – influencing the border areas while apparently giving some help to the junta. It is not easy to keep the regional calm when the fighting continues and no one can see a definite solution in the near term.
Still, people like Ko Kaung and the soldiers that he helps hiding still believe and hope even if the times are difficult. They talk about getting stronger and having a federal form of democracy as the ultimate goal. But they also realize that there is a very long way to go. The military has made some very big moves, but they are far from having total control of the country.Foreigners and citizens of Myanmar are putting up with the worst of the war as it continues with small scale routine offensive operations. The decision to draft people into the army may have so far resulted in the junta benefiting from the situation; Still, it has at the same time exacerbated the bloodshed and division of the nation among one of the most complicated conflicts in the world.
